#60 Lo mejor es que te leas el articulo de bloomberg de hace unos dias. Si controlas de ingles aqui lo tienes. Basicamente dice que somos unos yonkis del credito y que antes o despues nos vamos a ir a la porra. Si te gusta la historia de españa, te recomiendo que estudies las 13 veces que hemos quebrado ya, fechas, el como, las causas, las consecuencias para la gente corriente, que pasa con su dinero, con sus depositos, con sus salarios, ....
No es mas que lo que decia Waren buffet hace un tiempo, "esto es una guerra de pobres contra ricos, y de momento, vamos ganando". Salvo que ahora hasta por sitios como internet aparece escoria a reirse de que a ti te jodan con la reforma laboral, o a contar mentiras, para mantener el tinglado unos años mas ante la pasividad de una gente que prefiere irse a la playa a informarse unas horas de donde meter su dinero en el banco. Esto se mantiene porque la gente prefiere que le pastoreen a pensar, que eso cansa. Sino tendriamos las carceles llenas, y hacienda trabajando a pleno rendimiento expropiando a ladrones.
Una estafa llamada crisis, que de nuevo es un justificante para jodernos.
With 10Y yields trading below those of US Treasuries, asking the question of Spain's rising default risk seems risible but as Bloomberg's Maxime Sbaihi notes, the longer the euro flirts with deflation, the higher the risk that the heavily indebted (and becoming more so) countries will be tempted to default. Of course, this 'concern' is entirely ignored by the 'market' as Draghi has promised enough liquidity to soak up every short-dated bond but as the European Union's so-called "1/20 rule" suggests - requiring states to reduce excessive (over 60% Debt/GDP) by 1/20th every year or face a fine of 0.2% of GDP - Spain, it appears has 5 options to escape this vicious circle... and one of those is restructuring...
Click para ampliarTo reduce its public debt, Spain can choose among five options, which are not mutually exclusive.
The first is to attempt to grow GDP faster than public debt in order to reduce the ratio. According to International Monetary Fund forecasts, annual GDP growth in Spain will remain below 1.3 percent until 2020. This is not enough to stabilize the debt ratio, according to Bloomberg Brief calculations.
The second option is to pursue fiscal adjustment until the primary balance — the budget balance without debt interest payments — reaches a surplus. With a primary deficit of 4 percent, Spain still needs further consolidation, heightening political risk from voters who show increasing signs of austerity fatigue. Reducing the deficit too quickly might also endanger the recovery.
Another option is financial repression, involving state-dictated measures such as interest-rate caps, direct lending to the government or regulation of capital flows. This runs up against reputation risk, political backlash and legal issues, especially in a currency union. Yet it remains a possibility after some features were implemented during the banking sector bailout in Cyprus.
Another even more radical option is to restructure or fully default on the debt. That has become more conceivable with the Greek precedent and years of austerity fatigue. In a December 2013 paper on debt restructuring, Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff warned: “restructurings will be needed, particularly, for example, in the periphery of Europe, far beyond anything discussed in public to this point.”
One final option is to rely on inflation. Spain’s public debt is fixed in nominal terms, except for one 5 billion euro inflation-linked bond issuance last month. Higher inflation means a lower real value for repayments. Given the current debt stock, even 3 percent inflation in Spain would only reduce public debt to GDP by 1 percentage point by 2025, according to Bloomberg Brief calculations based on IMF projections
Repression has been tried and the banks are already neck deep in it... growth is a joke in the new normal... fiscal adjustment is simply (as we have seen) too much pain for politicians... and inflation is going the wrong way... leaving one option (as unpalatable as it is)... default/restructure.
es jodidísimo reducir deuda, porque...
