Está dando bastante que hablar:
The Elephant in the Room
May 12th, 2011 13:32 | Article
This is not an article that will make me popular. This is not an article that will start negative but end with eloquent, poignant hope. But we have been skirting around this topic ever since Beta now, so I’ll just f**king say it:
The competition in SC2 thus far has been a farce.
The three GSL winners, FruitDealer, NesTea, and MC - objectively, they are remarkable players. FruitDealer is always a joy to behold, with his schizophrenic tech paths and compulsive risk-taking. Detective NesTea seems to find every sneaky probe red-handed and guilty-faced with its stupid little proxy pylon, like an Easter bunny that hides turds instead of eggs. The Kratoss MC just dispassionately stomps kids all day. All have shown themselves to be capable under pressure, and all have posted great results.
We see the clear Brood War Advantage© in action here. Their mechanics are honed and their instincts unerringly accurate. If we are to believe Tasteless and Artosis, these ex-Brood War pros were all “sick good” at that game, and imported it over to SC2. They certainly were, compared to non-Koreans. But if we look at the actual numbers behind their Brood War careers, it immediately becomes obvious that they were nobodies in their own scene.
Their records (source TLPD) from their Brood War days:
FruitDealer - 13-20 (39.39%) Mar 2006 - Feb 2008
NesTea - 11-21 (34.38%) July 2007 - May 2009
MC - 1-9 (10.00%) July 2008 - May 2010
These guys weren’t average. They weren’t almost average. They were bad. MC, the fearsome God of War "Kratoss", was instead known as “Flounder” and the “Suicide Toss”. And now this former fish Protoss is one of the dominating Korean StarCraft 2 players, allegedly the untouchable elite for our fledgling game. NesTea was the best of the bunch, making it to Brood War's equivalent of Code A a few times, though never making it through to "Code S". Between the three of them, there's about two dozen failed attempts to make it through "Code A" qualifiers.
“But intrigue, that’s such a small sampl-”
TesteR, Code S, beta monster - 45-69 (39.47%) Nov 2003 - Jan 2010
Bomber, ST ace, as well as #1 SC2 TLPD ELO - 1-2 (33.33%) Aug 2007 - June 2010
SangHo, Code S - 43-63 (40.57%) Mar 2006 - Mar 2010
TheWinD, Code S - 49-70 (41.18%) Oct 2000 - Aug 2007
SuperNoVa, Code S – 13-22 (37.14%) Mar 2007 to Nov 2010
These guys were Brood War progamers for a long time and never shone. TesteR perhaps earned a bit of respect - the kind that sports fans have for their aging third string cornerback. His determination at being the perennial punching bag for better players in tournaments was actually pretty admirable, albeit in a sad way. His rare moments of solid play were celebrated, but it was no great loss to the competition when he left. More:
MMA, SlayerS ace - 2-3 (40.00%) Sept 2008 - May 2009
Mvp, IM ace, GSLWC winner - 30-46 (39.47%) Apr 2008 - Aug 2010
TheStC - 8-12 (40.00%) Mar 2007 - Apr 2008
MarineKing (Code S, two-time GSL finalist) Sept 2009 - June 2010
LosirA (Code S, ro8) Apr 2009 - June 2010, Clide (Code S) Mar 2007- Dec 2008
With the exception of MVP, these players never made it to their respective teams’ A-teams. They are listed separately because their careers in Brood War were all pretty short for one reason or another, and it would be unfair to list them with the others. For some of these guys, the reason for quitting was StarCraft II.
In any case, every player listed so far proved nothing in Brood War and are now tearing up SC2 one year later. Only two ex-BW pros have the distinction of being above average in their past careers:
RainBOw, Code S, GSL silver and bronze - 116-114 (50.43%)
Ace, stomped white dudes at IEM – 2-0 (100%)
"I don't know if it's okay to say this, but in the end pros play to make money."
- MVP
Low level players in Brood War make little or nothing on proteams. They help more successful players practice, and otherwise spend their time desperately clawing their way up in-house rankings for a shot at Proleague. There is no respect or fame, only the daily grind to maybe get better, maybe move up to A-team, and maybe maybe play a televised game.
When GSL first came out and announced its 100,000,000 won prize, many of these struggling progamers found themselves making a business decision.
MVP, on his move to SC2:
This is the first time I've mentioned it, but I come from a very poor family. The 100,000,000 won prize GSL came out with had a big influence on my switch. I wanted to win, and I wanted to make money. I wanted to help my family out with my winnings.
With the establishment of SC2 proteams in Korea, high tier progamers are actually making a salary now. The TSL team house announced an annual salary of $31k for Fruitdealer, and $27k for Tester. Combined with prize winnings and fame, this isn't shabby at all. It's an improvement from their BW life nobody can blame them for taking. But:
Money is the same reason S-class and even A-class Brood War pros don't switch.
Celebrity Brood War players enjoy lucrative contracts with their sponsors, often telecom mega-corporations with money to spend. For example, STX's A-class powerhouses Calm 189-158 (54.47%) and Kal 235-182 (56.35%) make an annual salary of up to $80k-90k range if all incentives are met. CJ Entus's Terran ace Leta 170-120 (58.62%) earns a similar $85k.
At the top, the earnings are downright disgusting. Flash 394-153 (72%) the Ultimate Weapon makes a staggering base salary of $200,000 yearly, not including tournament winnings. If he hits his incentive options, this figure can go up to $250,000. Why would he ever leave?
Our own Jinro states that if Flash could be persuaded to switch to SC2, he "could probably take games from anyone within a week, for TvT at least.” And it wouldn't be surprising to anyone who knows anything about Brood War: as an amateur playing for fun, a 15 year old Flash one day decided to go pro (itself a tremendous feat, involving playing tests and trials) and win a title within a year. That's why seeing MC say that Flash would do well in SC2 is such a facepalm moment.
KT Rolster’s HoeJJa 37-57 (39.36%) (comparable to the better players that have switched) complains during the progaming show Old Boy: “If you play 10 games in a day with Flash, you forget how to win a game. You forget how to win!! You can’t win! He’s that good.”
Flash's fellow S-class players (this term actually means something in Brood War - SC2 tosses it around like candy) such as Jaedong 428-196 (68.59%) and Bisu 335-179 (65.18%) also inspire such remarks. They enjoy prime salaries playing a game where they won't suddenly be informed that barracks now require depots, or that spellcasters have lost their energy upgrades. There is arguably less luck involved too, since build order wins and easy-to-control-and-make 1a deathballs exist on a much smaller and more understood scale.
Why do these specific players do so well?
A Woongjin Stars coach states:
The gamer that possesses everything a coach wants is JD. Not only he has an amazing record, his mindset and attitude and everything else is flawless. For example, when a coach asks a gamer to practice over 100 games to win a game, many gamers complain. However. JD takes such a demand for granted - a natural way to improve himself. That's the difference of mindset.
Compare this to GuemChi's 61-70 (46%) experience at an SC2 pro house:
I couldn’t get used to the practice atmosphere at Startale. I guess I was really used to practice during my time at Woongjin. I don’t mean that Startale’s style of practicing is bad. I just prefer a more defined, even strict, practice system but at Startale, it was pretty much on your own and everyone did what they wanted to do.
Yeah, he's saying that Startale's style of practicing is bad.
It seems to be a matter of effort - not only is Jaedong talented, but he puts in the work. Former BW pros in SC2 have the mechanics and game sense that they gained through practice, and this is their advantage. But unless they can keep it up in the less structured environment of SC2 houses, they will certainly fall behind when high-level BW pros bring over their work ethic and determination.
In fact, the standards have already lowered for some big names: In his TSL interview, MVP states that he'd "rather play Starcraft 2 for fun, instead of [focus] on achievements". TesteR and FruitDealer left their first team oGs (where they were known as oGsSKS and oGsCool, respectively) only a couple months after beta to "enjoy SC2 as freely as possible." What does it say about the scene then, when a bottom-tier burnout from Brood War on a relaxed practice regimen still wins the GSL?
Min of SlayerS talks about the team's practice schedule leading up to their Cinderella win in a recent interview:
Our team practices far longer than the other teams and we were very confident in our skills. Players were assigned a map and we would play 30-40 games a day on the maps. All members of the team also analyzed each of the opponent’s team members style and favorite strategies.
30-40 games is about the workload of an average Brood War pro, and this (along with BoxeR's eye for talent) is already enough for SlayerS to rock the scene.
Do you want to know why S-class Brood War pros have to practice so much? Just think about what they are practicing for: matchup-specific "snipers" on other teams that have build orders (based on analysis from coaching staff) specifically to counter them all the time, a myriad of cheesy builds from inferior players intended to make the game as much of a dice roll as possible, or other high level pros. Imagine, facing another progamer who spends all his practice time in his best matchup on the one map you are expected to play on, analyzing all your games and replays – and you don’t even know what race he’s going to be playing. In Flash's case, he just rolls people sent out to snipe him, sometimes up to four of them in a row. It’s mind-boggling.
Former bonjwa Oov 228-144 (61%) on Flash:
I think he has the ideal mindset as a progamer that I've been thinking about. There aren't many players who set strategic moves, and in the case of Flash, I think he's looking about 10 games ahead. He's different from players who receive quite a shock after losing one match... I like that part about Flash and I think his focus and adaptability is extremely good.
The Legends
I know there's been a conspicuous omission of a few special ex-Brood War players. We have to treat them separately because:
a. I can't bear listing their names alongside some of the ones earlier on, and
b. It's important to see just how poorly they were doing at the twilight of their careers.
Here are their career stats, which for someone as old-school as BoxeR goes back to 2000.
BoxeR – 353-275 (56.21%)
NaDa - 439-290 (60.22%)
July - 267-202 (56.93%)
Here are their stats starting from the beginning of last year (2010):
BoxeR – 6-6 (50%)
NaDa - 14-11 (56%)
July - 6-9 (40%)
Perhaps motivation flagged after they won too many tournaments, or maybe the prize money was too distracting. Perhaps they were simply out-skilled by those who had built their games upon the templates these three established. Excuses aside, NaDa was the only one of the three to still somewhat regularly participate in Proleague. BoxeR and July were relegated to playing MST and OSL preliminaries and getting eliminated. Also note the number of games BoxeR played over this time period - 12. That is basically inactive status for a progamer. For comparison, let's look at, say, MVP's stats over that period:
MVP - 29-21 (58%)
Even still, these three guys certainly had no salary problems. NaDa for instance was known to command one of the highest salaries in all of progaming during his prime. Even without directly contributing to Proleague, their influence and wisdom within a team was likely worth the money. A prime example would be SKT1's investment in mentors such as BoxeR and Oov to cultivate talents like Fantasy. For these guys, I would even go as far as saying that Artosis hype for them is justified. They are the Real Deal, and even Flash must acknowledge them as among the select few who shaped the game into what it is today.
For them, SC2 is a new frontier to explore. It is their chance to once again play in front of their fans - a reason BoxeR has explicitly cited for his switch. These are guys who want to recapture the old glory of assembling a team of oxen and pioneering, in an age where their home is now dominated by supersoldiers.
What’s your point?
I am saying that there are 300 current pros and semi-pros that have the potential to come in and dominate SC2 at any moment, with a latency of a few months from the day they switch. Among this group there are a notable few that CRUSH any other players in terms of raw talent and/or work ethic and/or ability to learn. This knowledge cheapens any form of competition I see right now, no matter how much I try to enjoy the games.
"But intrigue, BW stats are not everything! This information is all irrelevant!"
I'll save my arguing energy for responding to your comments. A friend of mine wanted to take this part:
Hot_Bid writes:
I know what you're going to say. "It's a different game." I agree with you, somewhat. Look at the WarCraft 3 guys that are doing so well in the international scene, or at the Brood War careers of the guys winning the GSLs. There hasn't been a huge correlation between Brood War ability and SC2 ability among top tier SC2 pros right now.
You see IM.Mvp and think he's the best Terran. But he's the only legitimate A-team pro (and a mediocre one at that) to transfer over. Nobody else has. Imagine there are hundreds of guys like him, with the same raw ability and mindset. They could be worse, or better, or exactly the same. Now imagine there are two, maybe three, that are just flat out better than Mvp at speed, precision, multitasking, and raw ability. Not just "a little better" but way better. But that's not what separates them from him. Flash and Jaedong, when motivated, have a mindset and work ethic that is unmatched by any other RTS professional. Their ability to focus and practice is not just "way better" than what Mvp is capable of, but orders of magnitudes better. Think the difference between Kobe and "average starter" on an NBA team.
Maybe Leta or Sea or Best or Zero won't come into SC2 and be ultra-successful if they switch. But Jaedong and Flash? They are outliers. They do not conform to the normal rules, and everyone who has followed Brood War knows that if they switch, it's not a question of if they will dominate and win, but when.
The "different game" argument applies to 99.9% of progamers, but not for special players like Jaedong and Flash. The game doesn't matter. Whether it's BW or SC2 or checkers or minesweeper, certain players are so good they will always be at the top.
Was ThorZaIN vs oGsMC awesome? Fuck yeah! I loved watching those two play, the games were fantastic. But isn't high school football in Friday Night Lights really exciting too?
Sorting by ELO, the only non-ex-Brood War players in the top 10 are Polt (#6), Alicia (#8) (who is going to be big, by the way), and sC (#10). Can you name other SC2 players you'd put money on? InCa? Maka? Rain (the only non-ex-BW pro to make it to a GSL finals)?
My prediction: there will be another influx of MVP-level (A-class) pros into SC2 after deals fall through during the next August free agency. With the announcement of Heart of the Swarm for Spring 2012, it's likely they will decide to get a head start.
Last year at MLG DC, I asked IdrA if he felt a sense of urgency to win a GSL before the top tier Brood War players switched. I was not sober enough to remember what he said. He sounded confident though, and I’m glad of it – foreigners are going to desperately need confidence if they are to keep up. Brood War's drawing power for live audiences has waned since the golden days, and I do not believe that the entire top tier of Brood War players will stay in that strange parallel world. They'll be here, a few at a time. Oh man, they’re coming
